Even the notion that turnovers dictate the outcome of a game offers something of a chicken-or-egg conundrum. The math suggests things like pressure and sack rates have surprisingly little correlation to takeaways, while less intuitive metrics like yards per rush are a better predictor. Only 12 programs have finished with at least 25 takeaways six or more times in the past decade, and it's hardly a who's who of college football, with Utah, Louisiana Tech and Northwestern in the club. Over the past decade, 80 FBS programs fall somewhere between a plus-30 and minus-30 turnover margin, a difference of roughly one turnover or takeaway for every four games played. In the past five years, the difference between a team in the top one-third nationally in takeaways and a team in the bottom third is only about one takeaway for every two games played. It doesn't take much digging to make the case. "But having said all that, there's still a tremendous component of luck involved in turnovers." "As a coach, there's no question that it benefits you to teach ball security and strip drills and techniques for getting the ball away," said Rob Ash, the director of coaching development at Championship Analytics and a 25-year veteran of coaching college football. It's a sales pitch to players that virtually every coach in America, at every level of football, will make in some form this fall, and it all sounds great except for one small problem: It's entirely possible that much of it isn't true. It's a speech Clawson has down pat, the foundation of his theory on how a program like Wake Forest - a private school with scant advantages over rivals like Clemson and Florida State - can possess the most important resource of all: the football. "Everything is about possession of that ball." "That ball represents the whole program," Clawson said. There will be film highlights to showcase for the defense how much of an impact a takeaway has on the game's outcome.Īt the front of the room, Dave Clawson will open his treatise on 2018 not with talk of victories and defeats, yards, points or explosive plays. There are signs on the walls with stats telling them that the teams that protect the football win more often. When Wake Forest opens camp in a few days, players will filter into the team meeting room, surrounded by reminders of their top priority. You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browserĬhain reaction: Are turnovers about more than luck?Ĭollege Football, Miami Hurricanes, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
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